Ethnographic Causality

The book explores the problem of causal inference when a sufficient number of comparative cases cannot be found, which would permit the application of frequency based models formulated in terms of explanatory causal generalisations. The technique advocated develops the idea of Bayesian Narratives deriving evidence for singular causal connections from ethnographically elicited, indicative, counter factual and counter potential statements. Bayesian Narratives assemble multiple causal inferences into a directed a-cyclic di-graph. Comparative Narratives allow that similar digraphs may be compared.